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1.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 102(5): e32797, 2023 Feb 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2323922

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Melanoma is a life-threatening form of skin cancer. Due to its remarkable effectiveness, the immune checkpoint blockade is widely used to treat melanoma (ICBM). No research has been conducted on ICBM for identifying the most readable articles. A bibliometric analysis of 100 top-cited ICBM (T100ICBM) in recent decades is required to highlight articles worth reading. METHODS: Based on the Web of Science Core Collection, we summarized the articles on ICBM published in each year from 2000 to 2022, with first authors from Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan (CHT). Using the CJAL score, data extraction and visualization of the distribution of ICBM publications were conducted on 2718, and 100 top-cited articles, respectively. We used the temporal heatmap to identify the most readable articles. Four descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive analytics (called DDPP model) were applied to describe the features of T100ICBM articles. The absolute advantage coefficient was used to determine the dominance extent of the most influential region, institute, department, and author. RESULTS: A total of 2718 publications was included after removing first or corresponding authors who were not affiliated with CHT. Publications by year showed a sharp increase from 2014 onward and either peaked in 2022 or have not yet peaked. It was evident that there was a large difference between the number of publications in provinces/metropolitan cities/regions on CHT. Beijing, Sichuan University, Oncology, and Guo Jun from Beijing are the most prolific and influential region, institute, department, and author. When comparing research achievements to the next productive authors based on the CJAL score, only Dr Jun has a medium effect of dominance (=0.60). On the basis of their consecutive growth in citations over the past 4 years, 20 T100ICBM articles were recommended for readers. CONCLUSION: The field of ICBM is growing rapidly, and Beijing and Sichuan University are taking the lead in CHT. Furthermore, the study provides references for worth-reading articles using the temporal heatmap. Future research hot spots may focus on these 4 themes of immunotherapy, melanoma, metastatic melanoma, regulatory T cells, cells, and activation, which may pave the way for additional study.


Subject(s)
Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors , Melanoma , Humans , Hong Kong , Journal Impact Factor , Taiwan , China , Bibliometrics
2.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 102(17): e33626, 2023 Apr 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2296616

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The acronym COVID, which stands for coronavirus disease, has become one of the most infamous acronyms in the world since 2020. An analysis of acronyms in health and medical journals has previously found that acronyms have become more common in titles and abstracts over time (e.g., DNA and human immunodeficiency virus are the most common acronyms). However, the trends in acronyms related to COVID remain unclear. It is necessary to verify whether the dramatic rise in COVID-related research can be observed by visualizations. The purpose of this study was to display the acronym trends in comparison through the use of temporal graphs and to verify that the COVID acronym has a significant edge over the other 2 in terms of research dominance. METHODS: An analysis of the 30 most frequently used acronyms related to COVID in PubMed since 1950 was carried out using 4 graphs to conduct this bibliometric analysis, including line charts, temporal bar graphs (TBGs), temporal heatmaps (THM), and growth-share matrices (GSM). The absolute advantage coefficient (AAC) was used to measure the dominance strength for COVID acronym since 2020. COVID's AAC trend was expected to decline over time. RESULTS: This study found that COVID, DNA, and human immunodeficiency virus have been the most frequently observed research acronyms since 2020, followed by computed tomography and World Health Organization; although there is no ideal method for displaying acronym trends over time, researchers can utilize the GSM to complement traditional line charts, TBGs, and THMs, as shown in this study; and COVID has a significant edge over the other 2 in terms of research dominance by ACC (≥0.67), but COVID's AAC trend has declined (e.g., AACs 0.83, 0.80, and 0.69) since 2020. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that the GSM complement traditional line charts, TBGs, and THMs in trend analysis, rather than being restricted to acronyms in future research. This research provides readers with the AAC to understand how research dominates its counterparts, which will be useful for future bibliometric analyses.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Names , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , PubMed
3.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 102(8): e32955, 2023 Feb 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2262970

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Delirium is one of the most common geriatric syndromes in older patients, accounting for 25% of hospitalized older patients, 31 to 35% of patients in the intensive care unit, and 8% to 17% of older patients in the emergency department (ED). A number of articles have been published in the literature regarding delirium. However, it is unclear about article citations evolving in the field. This study proposed a temporal heatmap (THM) that can be applied to all bibliographical studies for a better understanding of cited articles worth reading. METHODS: As of November 25, 2022, 11,668 abstracts published on delirium since 2013 were retrieved from the Web of Science core collection. Research achievements were measured using the CJAL score. Social network analysis was applied to examine clusters of keywords associated with core concepts of research. A THM was proposed to detect articles worth reading based on recent citations that are increasing. The 100 top-cited articles related to delirium were displayed on an impact beam plot (IBP). RESULTS: The results indicate that the US (12474), Vanderbilt University (US) (634), Anesthesiology (2168), and Alessandro Morandi (Italy) (116) had the highest CJAL scores in countries, institutes, departments, and authors, respectively. Articles worthy of reading were highlighted on a THM and an IBP when an increasing trend of citations over the last 4 years was observed. CONCLUSION: The THM and IBP were proposed to highlight articles worth reading, and we recommend that more future bibliographical studies utilize the 2 visualizations and not restrict them solely to delirium-related articles in the future.


Subject(s)
Delirium , Reading , Humans , Aged , Bibliometrics , Publications , Intensive Care Units
4.
Scientometrics ; 128(2): 1429-1436, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2265043

ABSTRACT

A well-written and interesting article was published on November 21, 2021. Future relevant studies, however, may be improved by implementing (1) a framework that outlines the overall research; (2) an author-weighted scheme (AWS) that accurately quantifies the contributions of entities to articles; and (3) a more appropriate size for the nodes representing the proportional counts for each entity in social network analysis (SNA). VOSviewer was used to construct and visualize the scientometric networks and the relation-based analyses included three categories: (1) citation relations, (2) word cooccurrences, and (3) coauthorship relations. Nevertheless, the counts for each topical entity have not been consistently integrated. As a result, the nodes of the keyword co-occurrence network are large when compared to the number of connections between the entities or terms (i.e., the total number of relationships between co-occurring terms or entities). Additionally, all weighted counts in keywords (or the total link strength of a country/region) should equal the total number of documents (e.g., n = 9954 in that article). This would lead to biases in the calculation of publications (or citations) for entities, as is common in traditional SNA. This node illustrates a study framework and a couple of AWSs (i.e., equal and nonequal AWSs) to improve the article, and discusses the need to understand the requirement that the total centrality degree in SNA equals the total number of documents (or citations).

5.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 102(11): e33274, 2023 Mar 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2264592

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is raging worldwide. The administered vaccination has become a significant vehicle against the virus. Three hypotheses were made and required for validation: the number of vaccines administered is related to the country gross domestic product (GDP), vaccines can reduce the fatality rate (FR), and dashboards can present more meaningful information than traditionally static visualizations. Research data were downloaded from the GitHub website. The aims of this study are to verify that the number of vaccination uptakes is related to the country GDP, that vaccines can reduce FR, and that dashboards can provide more meaningful information than traditionally static visualizations. METHODS: The COVID-19 cumulative number of confirmed cases (CNCCs) and deaths were downloaded from the GitHub website for countries/regions on November 6, 2021. Four variables between January 1, 2021, and November 6, 2021, were collected, including CNCCs and deaths, GDP per capita, and vaccine doses administered per 100 people (VD100) in countries/regions. We applied the Kano model, forest plot, and choropleth map to demonstrate and verify the 3 hypotheses using correlation coefficients (CC) between vaccination and FRs. Dashboards used to display the vaccination effects were on Google Maps. RESULTS: We observed that the higher the GDP, the more vaccines are administered (Association = 0.68, t = 13.14, P < .001) in countries, the FR can be reduced by administering vaccinations that are proven except for the 4 groups of Asia, Low income, Lower middle income, and South America, as well as the application (app) with dashboard-type choropleth map can be used to show the comparison of vaccination rates for countries/regions using line charts. CONCLUSION: This research uses the Kano map, forest plot, and choropleth map to verify the 3 hypotheses and provides insights into the vaccination effect against the FR for relevant epidemic studies in the future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Nigeria , Income , Vaccination , Pandemics/prevention & control
7.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 101(49): e30249, 2022 Dec 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2191093

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, how to measure the negative impact caused by COVID-19 on public health (ImpactCOV) is an important issue. However, few studies have applied the bibliometric index, taking both infected days (quantity) and impact (damage) into account for evaluating ImpactCOV thus far. This study aims to verify the proposed the time-to-event index (Tevent) that is viable and applicable in comparison with 11 other indicators, apply the Tevent to compare the ImpactCOVs among groups in continents/countries in 2020 and 2021, and develop an online algorithm to compute the Tevent-index and draw the survival analysis. METHODS: We downloaded COVID-19 outbreak data of daily confirmed cases (DCCs) for all countries/regions. The Tevent-index was computed for each country and region. The impactCOVs among continents/countries were compared using the Tevemt indices for groups in 2020 and 2021. Three visualizations (i.e., choropleth maps, forest plot, and time-to-event, a.k.a. survival analysis) were performed. Online algorithms of Tevent as a composite score to denote the ImpactCOV and comparisons of Tevents for groups on Google Maps were programmed. RESULTS: We observed that the top 3 countries affected by COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 were (India, Brazil, Russia) and (Brazil, India, and the UK), respectively; statistically significant differences in ImpactCOV were found among continents; and an online time-event analysis showed Hubei Province (China) with a Tevent of 100.88 and 6.93, respectively, in 2020 and 2021. CONCLUSION: The Tevent-index is viable and applicable to evaluate ImpactCOV. The time-to-event analysis as a branch of statistics for analyzing the expected duration of time until 1 event occurs is recommended to compare the difference in Tevent between groups in future research, not merely limited to ImpactCOV.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemics , Disease Outbreaks
8.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 101(37): e30648, 2022 Sep 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2107667

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: An important factor in understanding the spread of COVID-19 is the case fatality rate (CFR) for each county. However, many of research reported CFRs on total confirmed cases (TCCs) rather than per 100,000 people. The disparate definitions of CFR in COVID-19 result in inconsistent results. It remains uncertain whether the incident rate and CFR can be compared to identify countries affected by COVID-19 that are under (or out of) control. This study aims to develop a diagram for dispersing TCC and CFR on a population of 100,000 (namely, TCC100 and CFR100) using the Kano model, to examine selected countries/regions that have successfully implemented preventative measures to keep COVID-19 under control, and to design an app displaying TCC100 and CFR100 for all infected countries/regions. METHODS: Data regarding confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in countries/regions were downloaded daily from the GitHub website. For each country/region, 3 values (TCC100, CFR100, and CFR) were calculated and displayed on the Kano diagram. The lower TCC100 and CFR values indicated that the COVID-19 situation was more under control. The app was developed to display both CFR100/CFR against TCC100 on Google Maps. RESULTS: Based on 286 countries/regions, the correlation coefficient (CC) between TCC100 and CFR100 was 0.51 (t = 9.76) in comparison to TCC100 and CFR with CC = 0.02 (t = 0.3). As a result of the traditional scatter plot using CFR and TCC100, Andorra was found to have the highest CFR100 (=6.62%), TCC100 (=935.74), and CFR (=5.1%), but lower CFR than New York (CFR = 7.4%) and the UK (CFR = 13.5%). There were 3 representative countries/regions that were compared: Taiwan [TCC100 (=1.65), CFR100 (=2.17), CFR (=1%)], South Korea [TCC100 (=20.34), CFR100 (=39.8), CFR (=2%), and Vietnam [TCC100 (=0.26), CFR100 (=0), CFR (=0%)]. CONCLUSION: A Kano diagram was drawn to compare TCC100 against CFT (or CFR100) to gain a better understanding of COVID-19. There is a strong association between a higher TCC100 value and a higher CFR100 value. A dashboard was developed to display both CFR100/CFR against TCC100 for countries/regions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , New York , Nigeria , Republic of Korea , Taiwan
9.
Medicine ; 101(37), 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-2034023

ABSTRACT

Background: An important factor in understanding the spread of COVID-19 is the case fatality rate (CFR) for each county. However, many of research reported CFRs on total confirmed cases (TCCs) rather than per 100,000 people. The disparate definitions of CFR in COVID-19 result in inconsistent results. It remains uncertain whether the incident rate and CFR can be compared to identify countries affected by COVID-19 that are under (or out of) control. This study aims to develop a diagram for dispersing TCC and CFR on a population of 100,000 (namely, TCC100 and CFR100) using the Kano model, to examine selected countries/regions that have successfully implemented preventative measures to keep COVID-19 under control, and to design an app displaying TCC100 and CFR100 for all infected countries/regions. Methods: Data regarding confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in countries/regions were downloaded daily from the GitHub website. For each country/region, 3 values (TCC100, CFR100, and CFR) were calculated and displayed on the Kano diagram. The lower TCC100 and CFR values indicated that the COVID-19 situation was more under control. The app was developed to display both CFR100/CFR against TCC100 on Google Maps. Results: Based on 286 countries/regions, the correlation coefficient (CC) between TCC100 and CFR100 was 0.51 (t = 9.76) in comparison to TCC100 and CFR with CC = 0.02 (t = 0.3). As a result of the traditional scatter plot using CFR and TCC100, Andorra was found to have the highest CFR100 (=6.62%), TCC100 (=935.74), and CFR (=5.1%), but lower CFR than New York (CFR = 7.4%) and the UK (CFR = 13.5%). There were 3 representative countries/regions that were compared: Taiwan [TCC100 (=1.65), CFR100 (=2.17), CFR (=1%)], South Korea [TCC100 (=20.34), CFR100 (=39.8), CFR (=2%), and Vietnam [TCC100 (=0.26), CFR100 (=0), CFR (=0%)]. Conclusion: A Kano diagram was drawn to compare TCC100 against CFT (or CFR100) to gain a better understanding of COVID-19. There is a strong association between a higher TCC100 value and a higher CFR100 value. A dashboard was developed to display both CFR100/CFR against TCC100 for countries/regions.

10.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 101(32): e29718, 2022 Aug 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1992404

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The negative impacts of COVID-19 (ImpactCOVID) on public health are commonly assessed using the cumulative numbers of confirmed cases (CNCCs). However, whether different mathematical models yield disparate results based on varying time frames remains unclear. This study aimed to compare the differences in prediction accuracy between 2 proposed COVID-19 models, develop an angle index that can be objectively used to evaluate ImpactCOVID, compare the differences in angle indexes across countries/regions worldwide, and examine the difference in determining the inflection point (IP) on the CNCCs between the 2 models. METHODS: Data were downloaded from the GitHub website. Two mathematical models were examined in 2 time-frame scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic (the early 20-day stage and the entire year of 2020). Angle index was determined by the ratio (=CNCCs at IP÷IP days). The R2 model and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the model's prediction accuracy in the 2 time-frame scenarios. Comparisons were made using 3 visualizations: line-chart plots, choropleth maps, and forest plots. RESULTS: Exponential growth (EXPO) and item response theory (IRT) models had identical prediction power at the earlier outbreak stage. The IRT model had a higher model R2 and smaller MAPE than the EXPO model in 2020. Hubei Province in China had the highest angle index at the early stage, and India, California (US), and the United Kingdom had the highest angle indexes in 2020. The IRT model was superior to the EXPO model in determining the IP on an Ogive curve. CONCLUSION: Both proposed models can be used to measure ImpactCOVID. However, the IRT model (superior to EXPO in the long-term and Ogive-type data) is recommended for epidemiologists and policymakers to measure ImpactCOVID in the future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
12.
Scientometrics ; 127(5): 2897-2899, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1850389

ABSTRACT

The article published on 16 May 2021 is interesting and impressive, particularly on the Figure displaying several acronyms in trend. Although the most popular eight acronyms in 2019 and 2020 are individually highlighted and labeled, how to determine the points in 2019 and 2020 is required for classifications. The analysis for the evolution of keywords is common and necessary in the bibliographic study. None of the studies addressed the determination of the bursting point for a given keyword over the years. We aim to illustrate the way to determine the inflection point on a given ogive curve and apply the temporal bar graph (TBG) to interpret the trend of a specific keyword (or acronym). The prediction model is based on item response theory, commonly used in educational and psychometric fields. The eight acronyms presented in the previous study were demonstrated using the TBG. We found that the TBG includes more valuable information than the traditional trend charts. The inflection point denoted the topic burst indicates the turning point suddenly from increasing to decreasing. The TBG combined with the inflection point to represent the trend of a given keyword can make the data in trend easier and clearer to understand than any graph used in ever before bibliometric analyses.

13.
Scientometrics ; : 1-3, 2022.
Article in English | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1738078

ABSTRACT

The article published on 16 May 2021 is interesting and impressive, particularly on the Figure displaying several acronyms in trend. Although the most popular eight acronyms in 2019 and 2020 are individually highlighted and labeled, how to determine the points in 2019 and 2020 is required for classifications. The analysis for the evolution of keywords is common and necessary in the bibliographic study. None of the studies addressed the determination of the bursting point for a given keyword over the years. We aim to illustrate the way to determine the inflection point on a given ogive curve and apply the temporal bar graph (TBG) to interpret the trend of a specific keyword (or acronym). The prediction model is based on item response theory, commonly used in educational and psychometric fields. The eight acronyms presented in the previous study were demonstrated using the TBG. We found that the TBG includes more valuable information than the traditional trend charts. The inflection point denoted the topic burst indicates the turning point suddenly from increasing to decreasing. The TBG combined with the inflection point to represent the trend of a given keyword can make the data in trend easier and clearer to understand than any graph used in ever before bibliometric analyses.

14.
Scientometrics ; 126(10): 8761-8764, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1704629

ABSTRACT

The article published on 16 May 2021, is well-written and of interest, but remains several questions that are required for clarifications, such as the presentations in Table 1 and Fig. 1 that should be improved further for providing more valuable information to readers. After viewing Table 1, measuring the strength of quantity (= 0.84) referred to the next two counterparts for the top one acronym (e.g., COVID) is demonstrated using the absolute advantage coefficient (AAC). Similarly, Traditional line charts on top-eight acronyms provide us with messages, including (i) DNA and RNA are popular over three decades; (ii) CT, MRI, HIV, SARS, and CoV start in 1972, 1985, 1986, 2003, and 2003, respectively; (iii) the number of COVID substantially surpasses over other seven acronyms in 2020 though the seven acronyms are almost equal in quantity in 2020. We are interested in producing similar Table 1 and Fig. 1 with a video MP4 provided to readers who can click on the link to manipulate the scenarios on their own. We found that the AAC and the traditional line charts on a dashboard make data clear for a better understanding of demonstrating the ascendancy of COVID-19 research using acronyms. The line charts are easily examined on Google Maps.

15.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(50): e28134, 2021 Dec 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1583960

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused >0.228 billion infected cases as of September 18, 2021, implying an exponential growth for infection worldwide. Many mathematical models have been proposed to predict the future cumulative number of infected cases (CNICs). Nevertheless, none compared their prediction accuracies in models. In this work, we compared mathematical models recently published in scholarly journals and designed online dashboards that present actual information about COVID-19. METHODS: All CNICs were downloaded from GitHub. Comparison of model R2 was made in 3 models based on quadratic equation (QE), modified QE (OE-m), and item response theory (IRT) using paired-t test and analysis of variance (ANOVA). The Kano diagram was applied to display the association and the difference in model R2 on a dashboard. RESULTS: We observed that the correlation coefficient was 0.48 (t = 9.87, n = 265) between QE and IRT models based on R2 when modeling CNICs in a short run (dated from January 1 to February 16, 2021). A significant difference in R2 was found (P < .001, F = 53.32) in mean R2 of 0.98, 0.92, and 0.84 for IRT, OE-mm, and QE, respectively. The IRT-based COVID-19 model is superior to the counterparts of QE-m and QE in model R2 particularly in a longer period of infected days (i.e., in the entire year in 2020). CONCLUSION: An online dashboard was demonstrated to display the association and difference in prediction accuracy among predictive models. The IRT mathematical model was recommended to make projections about the evolution of CNICs for each county/region in future applications, not just limited to the COVID-19 epidemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Models, Theoretical , COVID-19/epidemiology , Forecasting , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
16.
Eur J Med Res ; 26(1): 61, 2021 Jun 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1282268

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic occurred and rapidly spread around the world. Some online dashboards have included essential features on a world map. However, only transforming data into visualizations for countries/regions is insufficient for the public need. This study aims to (1) develop an algorithm for classifying countries/regions into four quadrants inn GSM and (2) design an app for a better understanding of the COVID-19 situation. METHODS: We downloaded COVID-19 outbreak numbers daily from the Github website, including 189 countries/regions. A four-quadrant diagram was applied to present the classification of each country/region using Google Maps run on dashboards. A novel presentation scheme was used to identify the most struck entities by observing (1) the multiply infection rate (MIR) and (2) the growth trend in the recent 7 days. Four clusters of the COVID-19 outbreak were dynamically classified. An app based on a dashboard aimed at public understanding of the outbreak types and visualizing of the COVID-19 pandemic with Google Maps run on dashboards. The absolute advantage coefficient (AAC) was used to measure the damage hit by COVID-19 referred to the next two countries severely hit by COVID-19. RESULTS: We found that the two hypotheses were supported: India (i) is in the increasing status as of April 28, 2021; (ii) has a substantially higher ACC(= 0.81 > 0.70), and (iii) has a substantially higher ACC(= 0.66 < 0.70) as of May 17, 2021. CONCLUSION: Four clusters of the COVID-19 outbreak were dynamically classified online on an app making the public understand the outbreak types of COVID-19 pandemic shown on dashboards. The app with GSM and AAC is recommended for researchers in other disease outbreaks, not just limited to COVID-19.


Subject(s)
Algorithms , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Models, Statistical , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Humans , India/epidemiology
18.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(10): e24749, 2021 Mar 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1138012

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the frequently asked questions is which countries (or continents) are severely hit. Aside from using the number of confirmed cases and the fatality to measure the impact caused by COVID-19, few adopted the inflection point (IP) to represent the control capability of COVID-19. How to determine the IP days related to the capability is still unclear. This study aims to (i) build a predictive model based on item response theory (IRT) to determine the IP for countries, and (ii) compare which countries (or continents) are hit most. METHODS: We downloaded COVID-19 outbreak data of the number of confirmed cases in all countries as of October 19, 2020. The IRT-based predictive model was built to determine the pandemic IP for each country. A model building scheme was demonstrated to fit the number of cumulative infected cases. Model parameters were estimated using the Solver add-in tool in Microsoft Excel. The absolute advantage coefficient (AAC) was computed to track the IP at the minimum of incremental points on a given ogive curve. The time-to-event analysis (a.k.a. survival analysis) was performed to compare the difference in IPs among continents using the area under the curve (AUC) and the respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs). An online comparative dashboard was created on Google Maps to present the epidemic prediction for each country. RESULTS: The top 3 countries that were hit severely by COVID-19 were France, Malaysia, and Nepal, with IP days at 263, 262, and 262, respectively. The top 3 continents that were hit most based on IP days were Europe, South America, and North America, with their AUCs and 95% CIs at 0.73 (0.61-0.86), 0.58 (0.31-0.84), and 0.54 (0.44-0.64), respectively. An online time-event result was demonstrated and shown on Google Maps, comparing the IP probabilities across continents. CONCLUSION: An IRT modeling scheme fitting the epidemic data was used to predict the length of IP days. Europe, particularly France, was hit seriously by COVID-19 based on the IP days. The IRT model incorporated with AAC is recommended to determine the pandemic IP.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Models, Statistical , COVID-19/mortality , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(5)2021 03 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1125641

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread widely around the world. Many mathematical models have been proposed to investigate the inflection point (IP) and the spread pattern of COVID-19. However, no researchers have applied social network analysis (SNA) to cluster their characteristics. We aimed to illustrate the use of SNA to identify the spread clusters of COVID-19. Cumulative numbers of infected cases (CNICs) in countries/regions were downloaded from GitHub. The CNIC patterns were extracted from SNA based on CNICs between countries/regions. The item response model (IRT) was applied to create a general predictive model for each country/region. The IP days were obtained from the IRT model. The location parameters in continents, China, and the United States were compared. The results showed that (1) three clusters (255, n = 51, 130, and 74 in patterns from Eastern Asia and Europe to America) were separated using SNA, (2) China had a shorter mean IP and smaller mean location parameter than other counterparts, and (3) an online dashboard was used to display the clusters along with IP days for each country/region. Spatiotemporal spread patterns can be clustered using SNA and correlation coefficients (CCs). A dashboard with spread clusters and IP days is recommended to epidemiologists and researchers and is not limited to the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , China/epidemiology , Europe , Asia, Eastern , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Network Analysis , United States
20.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(4)2021 02 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1102526

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan and rapidly spread around the world. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 is the first and foremost concern. The inflection point (IP) and the corresponding cumulative number of infected cases (CNICs) are the two viewpoints that should be jointly considered to differentiate the impact of struggling to fight against COVID-19 (SACOVID). The CNIC data were downloaded from the GitHub website on 23 November 2020. The item response theory model (IRT) was proposed to draw the ogive curve for every province/metropolitan city/area in China. The ipcase-index was determined by multiplying the IP days with the corresponding CNICs. The IRT model was parameterized, and the IP days were determined using the absolute advantage coefficient (AAC). The difference in SACOVID was compared using a forest plot. In the observation study, the top three regions hit severely by COVID-19 were Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Hubei, with IPcase indices of 1744, 723, and 698, respectively, and the top three areas with the most aberrant patterns were Yunnan, Sichuan, and Tianjin, with IP days of 5, 51, and 119, respectively. The difference in IP days was determined (χ2 = 5065666, df = 32, p < 0.001) among areas in China. The IRT model with the AAC is recommended to determine the IP days during the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , China/epidemiology , Cities , Hong Kong , Humans
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